Gold price potential is 10 doubling from current price

What would the gold price (P) be if all money in the world (MTotal) were replaced by the existing mined gold (Gtotal)?

Mtotal I don’t know but I know the money supply of Norway (MNOR), the GDP of Norway(GDPN) and the GDP of the world (GDPW). If we presume the money supply in the economy is proportional to the GDP the Mtotal is

1) Mtotal=GDPW*MNOR / GDPN

For the new gold price we have

2) P*Gtotal=Motal

We subsitutes 1 into and get

P= (GDPW*MNOR) / (GDPN*GTOTAL)

The numbers are

GDPW = 74.264.873 million USD ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29 )

MNOR = 300.000 million USD ( http://www.ssb.no/m2/tab-03.html )

GDPN = 255.000 million USD ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29 )

GTOTAL = 165.000.000.000g ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold )

=> P = 530 USD /g

Current price is 48 USD / g

This indicates that the gold price approximately 10 double following a worldwide legalization of gold.

There is other precious metals like silver. This will drag the gold price down. But given a gold/silver ration of 1/16 the worth of the silver is only 1/5th of the gold.

Then there are other uses for gold like electronics and jewelry. This will drag price up. Overall I believe a 10 doubling is a good estimate.

I am sure the current debt based currencies will end up worthless. This price rice will happen one way or another in the process. The big question is wether the governements will legalize money early and voluntarily or if they will clung to the fiat money to the bitter end plunging the world into a deep economic and social crises. In the first case the value of gold will rice in real terms in the second time it might barely keep it’s value.

But in both cases the precious metals is a safe bet placing parts of your savings.

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The Weimar welfare state and the devlopment of Nazism

It is often claimed that the abandonment of the state welfare will cause social unrest and instability.

The events in the Weimar Republic suggest the opposite. The outsourcing of personal responsibility, the family and the social life of friends and the local community to the state is causing instability and unrest.

The Weimar constitution was full of the declarations of the need for the state to support the family, protect people from harm, right to work, and right to decent home. A whole raft of new legislation was steered through the Reichstag. Existing schemes of health insurance, pensions, were further elaborated and extended. Massive housing schemes were being provided.

Historian Richard Evans comments: »

«The creation of a free and comprehensive welfare system as the entitlement of all its citizens was one of the major achievements of the Weimar republic, perhaps in retrospect the most important.

And then it was precisely the Weimar Republic that fostered Nazism.

Evans points out several problems:

  • The state welfare failed in the end to live up to the grandiose promises made in the 1919 constitution.  The gap between promise and delivery ended  having a major effect on the legitimacy of the Republic in the eyes of many of its citizens.
  • The Weimar welfare administration became an instrument of discrimination and control. Claimants would only receive the minimum and enquired intrusively into their personal circumstances. The anonymous rule-bound welfare bureaucracy questioning of peoples motives were insulting
  • The tax burden was steadily increasing and doubled from 1914 to 1923.
  • Most ominously. Health and welfare agencies determined to create rational and scientifically informed ways of dealing with social deprivation, deviance and crime, with the ultimate aim of eliminating them from German society in generations to come, encouraged new policies that began to eat away at the civil liberties of the poor and handicapped. As the social welfare administration mushroomed into a huge bureaucracy, so the doctrines of racial hygiene and social biology, already widespread among welfare professionals before the war began to acquire more influence.

The Weimar welfare state was instrumental in creating the chaos and unrest that paved the way for Hitler and the Nazi’s.

20 big questions answered in 5 minutes

Many people are seaking answers. Here are a few ( important ) ones (not neccesarily rated by their importance.)

It is condensing thousands of pages of philosophy and economics:

1. There is no God.

2. The president is NOT God (see 1).

3. You are the creator of your own life (see 1&2).

4. Your life is yours.

5. Property rights ( your time, traits and faculties are yours. ( see 4)).

6. Intellectual property (your brain is yours see 3, 4 and 5).

7. A is A. ( Things are what they are. neither more nor less).

8. Reality IS. It is not created by your consciousness (see 7).

9. Facts and logic (not emotions) is basic tool of thinking (see 7 and 8).

10. Self defence is ok (agression is not see 4).

11. Self interest. (not sacrifice see 4) .

12. Production (not consumption) is the basic economic problem.

13. Natur resources are not valuable by themselves.

14. People grow up.

15  Capitalism (not socialism see 2,3,4,5,10,11,14)

16. 100% reserve banking (not fractional).

17. The majority is not always right (see 7,8,9)

18. The majority shall not decide for you (see 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,17)

19. Socialism is economic anarchy.

20. The two most important things in life is work and love. Health and liberty are prerequisites for happiness.

If you need more answers please ask and I’ll update the note!

Feelings

Feelings is a difficult theme. Inspired by Edwin Lock, to get a better grasp of them, I’ll name and identify a few:

First some good feelings:

Desire: Wanting a value you don’t have.

Pride: Recognition of accomplishing something by your own honest effort. Recognition of own good traits.

Love :To value (thing or person) Romantic love (highest value of other person)

Hope Possibility for achieving a value.

Happiness The whole life is good.

Admiration. Hold in high esteem because of character or accomplishment.

Satisfaction Have what you want.

Some bad feelings:

Fear. Present physical threat. Threat to a value.

Anxiety. Future uncertain threat.

Disappointment: Failure to get a value you where counting on:

Guilt: Violating your own moral standards.

Anger. Witnessing injustice.

Envy. Discontent of someone who has a value you would like. Benevolent.

Sadness. Experiencing loss of value.

Depression. Widespread loss of value. Nothing is good and it will not be better.

First thing to note is that feelings are automatic reactions. You don’t decide today like “ I’m going to have a depression tomorrow”  or «I will be proud of this» . Rather emotions are immediate automatic reactions to some events. Bang! You don’t consciously control your emotions.

You can however control your emotions indirectly. All emotions have a cause. They are a reaction to something. By identifying the causes you can validate whether the emotions are correct responses. If the responses are incorrect you can try to correct you response by introspection telling yourself your response is incorrect. You can also act to mitigate causes of bad emotions and reinforce causes of good emotions.

Second point is that emotions relates to values. Good emotions relates to gaining values. Bad emotions to loosing or lacking values. I think emotions are life promoters put in human by evolution and survival of the fittest.

Good feelings are good and we will act to get more of them. In the process we gain values promoting our survival. Bad feelings are bad and we tend to act to avoid them regaining the lacking values. Species without feelings would just not care and die out.

Third point is the close relation between emotions and morality. Good and bad emotions are caused by gaining or loosing values. Morality is concerned about good and evil. The good is life promoting values whereas evilness is destruction of values.

All people experience emotions. They are real and affect and influence us a lot. Having good emotions feels physically good whereas bad emotions can really hurt. In a sense our emotions is an organ making us act to gain values and survive. As it is directly correspondent to morality. Morality is an organ just as real as our lungs and hearth.

What's the difference between taxation and slavery?

.Consider a pretty nice slave owner:

He has a slave who runs an excavator. He must run the excavator 8 hours a day 5 days a week. The rest of the time he is free.  He get some pocket money. And if he gets sick he get a place in a queue to wait for treatment.

If he denies his master the fruit of his labor he gets a long sentence in jail.

Compare this with a excavator taxpaying worker:

He runs the excavator 8 hours a day 5 days a week. After tax he has exactly the same amount as the slave. If he get sick he is entitled to wait in a queue for treatment.

If he denies his masters this part of the fruit of his labor he gets a long sentence in jail.

The cases appear to be exactly the same? Can anyone spot any difference?  If so why does this difference make taxation acceptable while slavery is not?

The language of liberty

The Heritage foundation is each year publishing a ranking of the world’s countries according to their economic freedom http://www.heritage.org/index/

Of the top ten 8 is speaking English. Of the other world languages the best Spanish speaking country is Chile (11). Best French speaking country is France (64). Best Russian speaking country is Kazakhstan (78). How come this English dominance among the world most free countries?

If we take a look at the map we find many of the other most free countries in the waterways around England notably Denmark (8), Estonia (14) the Netherlands (15) Finland (17) Sweden (22) Lithuania (24) and Norway (30).

I admit this is not much of a scientific material but I’ll draw some conclusions anyway; I believe people at the coast have been the first to experience the benefits of trade. Many have prospered. The tradesman is also difficult to control so they have become independent individuals and a counterweight to centralized power. And the spread of the ideas have followed the trade,

This is opposed to life in the inland without the water roads. Trade was more cumbersome. There were fewer prosperous tradesmen and the peasants locked to their land were easier to control. For these reasons Liberty has been suppressed in the inlands.

The influence of Magna Carta on liberty in the English culture is immense but I believe the freedom of the seas helped fostering Magna Carta too. English is really the language of liberty! http://languageoflibertyinstitute.org/

Ulf Lundell’s praise of the freedom at the coast: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIvB6nx-YUg